Longevity 102: improvements/trends

Event information

31 March 2021

This is a video recording of a webinar we held in March 2021

We learned about the current state of longevity in our first session, Longevity 101.

In this latest session, Longevity 102, we focused on how mortality rates are expected to change in the future. These changes are commonly known as improvements, as we usually expect life expectancy to increase over time. To allow for the possibility that life expectancy may not always increase we also refer to these changes as trends.

We began by reviewing the basics of setting a longevity assumption, highlighting the need to divide attention between the here and now (baseline) and future changes (improvements/trends). We then explored the differences between deterministic and stochastic trend models and when each is useful. Then we dived into the different families of trend models, ranging from those focusing on projecting recent data into the future to those being entirely shaped by expert opinion. We also explored regression models, structural stochastic models, and structural expert judgment models.

The aim was for you to come away with a familiarity with the core families of longevity improvement/trend models and an appreciation of the pros and cons for each group.

Chair: Erik Pickett, Actuary and Chief Content Officer, Club Vita

Shantel Aris, Longevity Risk Modeler, Club Vita Canada Steven Baxter, Head of Innovation and Development, Club Vita Conor O’Reilly, Head of Analytics, Club Vita

Please feel free to email Erik Pickett if you have any questions or topics you’d like us to address in this webinar or in any later sessions in our educational series.

Please click here to access slides from the webinar.

Longevity 102: improvements/trends